Saturday, May 28, 2005

The technologies that must die

I was just wondering what are the technologies that in my opinion will no longer be around in ten years. Here’s my pick:-

  1. The LAN cable. I am sure PCs will not even have LAN cards, everything must go wireless.

  2. The projector connected by monitor cable. Think Bluetooth

  3. Anti-virus software. The operating systems will become much harder and difficult to sabotage doing away with the need for anti-viruses.

  4. Text messaging – yes. It will and must die.

  5. blackberry. Same here.

  6. the stand-alone digital camera.

  7. the printed photograph.

  8. regional portals with yahoo-ish services.

  9. complex ERP products.

  10. traditional e-commerce where sellers are open. I suspect there will soon be a ring of trust governing where you can transact which will be linked into the VISA and mastercard / amex networks. Similar for private information.

  11. the landline phone number. It is just so archaic.

  12. yes. The mobile phone based on GSM, 3G, CDMA etc.

  13. the fax and paper documentary proof for anything.


  1. 3. 'The operating systems will become much harder and difficult to sabotage'.
    a.) You really think so?
    b.) And even if it does there will always be smarter/evil people around
    c.) And anti-virus is like insurance industry. it sells on 'what-if'. Hard to die.

    5. Blackberry. The company won't die, might get acquired. Why should it die?

    6. The stand-alone digital camera. Won't die. There is no reason. Phone cameras will never be able to matchup.

    7. The printed photograph. 50 years. Think digital music.

    12. Mobile phones based on GSM, CDMA, 3G! in 10 years! No ways!!

    I wish LAN cable dies today. I thought it already did. We have wifi here but we still use LAN because wifi isnt robust enough.

  2. 3. For sure. I think microsoft has realized its been ignoring security for a long time and its time to fix the same by somehow sandboxing the crucial parts of operating systems and applications. While smarter/ evil people will still aboud, i think the trick will be to harden the operating system to a level where it becomes difficult to do any real damage.

    5. My view is that the connected world of the future will be mobile in itself. As such a standalone mobile email access device. ..

    6. I disagree. They are already matching up. The phones dont need to become as good. Only good enough so that 99% of the casual photographers choose them causing the standalone digital camera market to become unviable.

    7. I meant the paper based photograph. Of course people will print digital photos on photo paper (maybe)

    12. Of course. this is my big bet.


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